What I most like about this particular probability model is that the DETROIT LIONS are rated a top-tier team, even though they finished with a 6-10 record. They make it to the top tier by virtue of winning their last four games in a row!!!
Tier 1 teams: win 70% of their games
Tier 2 teams: win 50% of their games
Tier 3 teams: win 25% of their games
Home Team NFL wins 55% of the time
T1 - T2 wins 80% of the time
T1 - T3 wins 80% of the time
T2 - T3 wins 70% of the time
Tier I teams: NYJ BAL PIT NEP
GBP ATL CHI DET NOS
Tier III teams: BUF CIN DEN CLE AZC CAR
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