INITIAL TIER ANALYSIS

What I most like about this particular probability model is that the DETROIT LIONS are rated a top-tier team, even though they finished with a 6-10 record. They make it to the top tier by virtue of winning their last four games in a row!!!

Tier 1 teams: win 70% of their games
Tier 2 teams: win 50% of their games
Tier 3 teams: win 25% of their games

Home Team NFL wins 55% of the time

T1 - T2 wins 80% of the time
T1 - T3 wins 80% of the time
T2 - T3 wins 70% of the time

Tier I teams: NYJ BAL PIT NEP
GBP ATL CHI DET NOS

Tier III teams: BUF CIN DEN CLE AZC CAR

NFL Team Stats from 2010 Regular Season

NYJ 1 11 5 ATL 1 13 3
BAL 1 12 4 CHI 1 11 5
PIT 1 12 4 DET 1 6 10
NEP 1 14 2 NOS 1 11 5 55 15 51 29 106 44
HOU 2 6 10 GBP 1 10 6 70.67
TNT 2 6 10 DAL 2 6 10
MIA 2 7 9 MNV 2 6 10
JAX 2 8 8 NYG 2 10 6
OAK 2 8 8 PHI 2 10 6
SDC 2 9 7 SEA 2 7 9
IND 2 10 6 SF4 2 6 10
KCC 2 10 6 STL 2 7 9 64 64 68 76 132 140
BUF 3 4 12 TBB 2 10 6 48.53
CIN 3 4 12 WAS 2 6 10
DEN 3 4 12 AZC 3 5 11
CLE 3 5 11 CAR 3 2 14 17 47 7 25 24 72
130 126 126 130 25